Executive Summary
The McKinney and Collin County housing market has changed significantly from the ultra-competitive market buyers remember from five years ago.
In July 2021, Collin County recorded 2,685 sales with only 2,504 active listings.
In July 2026, Collin County recorded 2,771 sales with 11,441 active listings.
That means Collin County actually closed slightly more homes in July 2026 than in July 2021, but buyers had more than 4.5 times as many active listings to choose from.
That distinction matters.
This is not a market where buyers have disappeared. It is a market where buyers have choices again — and that gives them more negotiating power.
For sellers, homes are still selling. But buyers can compare more properties, so pricing, condition, presentation and strategy matter more than they did during the low-inventory years.
The Number That Surprised People at My McKinney Open House
I was talking with buyers at an open house this weekend, and several were genuinely surprised when I told them how much more inventory we have compared with five years ago.
The difference is dramatic.
Collin County | July 2021 | July 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Closed sales | 2,685 | 2,771 |
Active listings | 2,504 | 11,441 |
There were 86 more closed sales in July 2026 than in July 2021 — about a 3% increase.
But there were 8,937 more active listings.
Put another way, buyers today have roughly 4.6 times as many active homes to choose from as they did in July 2021.
That is the real market shift.
Buyers Haven’t Disappeared
It is easy to look at higher inventory and assume that nobody is buying.
The sales numbers tell a different story.
Collin County recorded:
- 2,956 sales in May 2026
- 3,089 sales in June 2026
- 2,771 sales in July 2026
June was especially strong. With 3,089 closed sales, it was the strongest month in the Collin County data since July 2020.
It was also about 4.6% higher than June 2025, when 2,954 homes closed.
July slowed about 10.3% from June, but that followed an unusually strong month and still produced thousands of transactions.
So I would not characterize this as a market without buyers.
I would characterize it as a market where buyers can be more selective because substantially more sellers are competing for their attention.
What More Inventory Means for Buyers
Five years ago, buyers often had to make decisions very quickly.
There were fewer homes available, multiple buyers frequently wanted the same properties, and negotiating power was limited.
Today's environment looks very different.
More inventory can give buyers the ability to compare:
- Neighborhoods
- Condition
- Updates
- Floor plans
- Lots
- New construction versus resale
- Seller concessions
- Closing timelines
- Financing incentives
The local MLS data you're seeing also shows a 97.1% sale-to-list ratio and a 35-day median days on market.
Those numbers do not mean every seller will negotiate heavily.
They do tell us buyers are not universally paying full asking price, and many homes are sitting long enough for buyers to make more thoughtful decisions.
Public data for McKinney tells a similar story. Realtor.com classified McKinney as a buyer’s market in June 2026 and reported roughly 2,700 active listings, a 98% sale-to-list ratio and longer marketing times than a year earlier.
Does More Inventory Mean Something Is Wrong With the Market?
Not necessarily.
This is where historical context becomes important.
The 2020–2021 market had extraordinarily low inventory.
In July 2020, Collin County had 3,405 active listings.
By July 2021, that had fallen to just 2,504.
By comparison:
- July 2022: 5,070 active listings
- July 2023: 5,911
- July 2024: 8,740
- July 2025: 11,760
- July 2026: 11,441
Inventory didn't suddenly explode this summer.
It has been rebuilding for several years.
In fact, July 2026 inventory is actually slightly below July 2025.
That is why I would describe today's market as high-inventory compared with the shortage years, rather than suggesting inventory is currently spiraling upward.
Why Sellers Shouldn't Panic
The same numbers that are good news for buyers are not necessarily bad news for sellers.
Remember:
2,771 homes still sold in July.And 3, 089 sold in June. There is demand. The difference is that sellers now have more competition. In 2021, a buyer may have had very few appropriate homes available. Today, that same buyer may have several. That means sellers need to answer a different question:
Why should the buyer choose this home instead of the alternatives?
Pricing, preparation, photography, condition, staging and marketing all matter more when buyers have choices.
I've written separately about exactly this in my guide to preparing a McKinney home for sale. In a more competitive listing environment, the goal isn't simply getting a property onto the MLS — it is positioning it correctly against everything else the buyer can purchase.
What Happens If Mortgage Rates Come Down?
This is where the current opportunity becomes especially interesting for buyers.
As of August 13, 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was about 6.67%, according to Freddie Mac data reported by the Associated Press. A lot of prospective buyers are waiting for rates to come down. The problem is that they are not waiting alone.
If mortgage rates decline enough to meaningfully improve affordability, more buyers may qualify — and some of the buyers currently sitting on the sidelines may decide it is finally time to move. That can create a very different environment.
Today:
More inventory + fewer competing buyers = more negotiating leverage
If rates decline:
Improved affordability + more buyers entering the market = potentially more competition
If that increase in demand happens faster than inventory grows, buyers could find themselves competing more aggressively again. That could also put renewed upward pressure on pricing.
I would never tell a buyer that falling rates automatically mean home prices will rise. Housing markets are influenced by employment, inventory, construction, consumer confidence and the larger economy.
But supply and demand still matters.
Should You Wait for Mortgage Rates to Drop Before Buying?
This may be the wrong question. A better question might be:
Would you rather buy with a somewhat higher rate while you have more negotiating leverage — or potentially buy with a lower rate while competing against more buyers?
There isn't one correct answer.
For some people, today's payment simply doesn't work and waiting makes sense.
But for buyers who can comfortably purchase today, the current market may offer opportunities that aren't reflected in the mortgage rate alone.
Depending on the particular home, that could include:
- Negotiating the purchase price
- Seller-paid closing costs
- Rate buydowns
- Repair negotiations
- Longer decision timelines
- More leverage on homes that have been sitting
- Greater ability to compare resale and builder inventory
And if mortgage rates fall significantly later, refinancing may eventually become an option for some homeowners.
You can potentially change your interest rate later.
You cannot renegotiate your original purchase price after closing.
Is McKinney Actually a Buyer's Market?
There is evidence that it is leaning that way.
Realtor.com's June 2026 market data explicitly classified McKinney as a buyer's market, meaning supply was greater than buyer demand. It reported roughly 2,700 homes for sale and said homes were selling at about 98% of asking price.
I prefer to look at that alongside what I'm actually seeing in the MLS and with buyers and sellers locally.
Not every McKinney neighborhood is behaving the same way.
Not every price point is behaving the same way.
And a beautifully prepared, correctly priced home in a desirable neighborhood can still sell quickly.
But broadly speaking, buyers have substantially more choices than they did five years ago.
That is meaningful.
The Market Hasn't Stopped — The Balance Has Changed
This is probably the simplest way I can explain today's Collin County market:
Homes are selling. Buyers are buying. But buyers have choices again.
That means today's market can actually be interesting for both sides.
Buyers may have opportunities to negotiate that simply didn't exist during the shortage years.
Sellers still have a large pool of active buyers — but they need a more deliberate strategy to stand out from competing listings.
And if rates eventually come down enough to bring a meaningful wave of buyers back into the market, today's balance could change again.
Markets rarely send out invitations announcing the perfect moment.
Sometimes the opportunity is simply recognizing when the balance has shifted before everyone else does.
FAQs
Does Collin County really have four times more homes for sale than five years ago?
Yes. Your MLS data shows 2,504 active listings in July 2021 versus 11,441 in July 2026 — roughly 4.6 times as many.
Are homes still selling in Collin County?
Yes. July 2026 recorded 2,771 sales, slightly more than July 2021's 2,685 sales.
Was June 2026 a weak month?
No. June recorded 3,089 closed sales, the highest monthly total in your Collin County data since July 2020.
Does higher inventory automatically mean prices will fall?
No. Inventory is one part of the equation. Buyer demand, interest rates, employment, new construction and individual property characteristics also matter.
Will home prices go up if mortgage rates fall?
Not automatically. But if lower rates bring substantially more buyers into the market and inventory doesn't grow at the same pace, increased competition can put upward pressure on pricing.
What does this mean for McKinney sellers?
Buyers are still buying, but they're comparing more alternatives. Pricing, condition, presentation and marketing strategy become increasingly important.
